New Jersey's Labor Department just released the results of its years-long misclassification strategy. Spoiler alert: It did not recoup "billions of dollars."
This data discrepancy is massive and underreported. Going from claims of "billions" to actual recovery of $12.5M annually shows either fundamentally flawed cost estimates or policy justifications built on exageration. I saw similar patterns when tracking regulatory impact statements, where projected benefits get inflated to justify enforcement expansions but actual results never get the same scrutiny. The fact this is being used to justify rulemaking that "almost entirely eviscerates" self-employment makes the numbers gap especially problematic.
This data discrepancy is massive and underreported. Going from claims of "billions" to actual recovery of $12.5M annually shows either fundamentally flawed cost estimates or policy justifications built on exageration. I saw similar patterns when tracking regulatory impact statements, where projected benefits get inflated to justify enforcement expansions but actual results never get the same scrutiny. The fact this is being used to justify rulemaking that "almost entirely eviscerates" self-employment makes the numbers gap especially problematic.
Exactly 🎯